ISW: Putin is secretly taking over Belarus
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the US has published a report analyzing recent political developments in Belarus, stating that Russia is gradually encroaching on the country.
According to analysts, Moscow is seeking to take full control of Belarus militarily, economically, and politically, which poses serious threats to NATO and the geopolitical situation in the region.
According to the ISW report, Russia has increased its influence in Belarus in the following ways:
Mass protests erupted in Belarus after the disputed 2020 presidential election. Moscow helped Alexander Lukashenko suppress the protests by sending propagandists and forceful structures.
In 2021-2022, Russia deployed its troops on the territory of Belarus under the pretext of conducting military exercises. When a large-scale offensive against Ukraine began in 2022, about 30,000 Russian soldiers crossed the Belarusian-Ukrainian border and attacked Kiev.
Russia plans to permanently station air forces, armored brigades, and strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus.
According to ISW analysts, Russia is moving in several directions to gain complete control over Belarus:
Economic integration – Belarus and Russia are forming a single energy and labor market. Gas, electricity, and labor operate in a common system.
Legislative and political control - The Kremlin may in the future create a single court and parliament for Belarus and Russia, and establish a committee with legislative powers.
The nuclear weapons issue - Russia has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in 2023, which could pose a serious threat to international security.
The ISW report also notes that Belarus is no longer an independent state, but rather an extended territory of Russia, which could serve as a springboard for the Kremlin's future moves against Europe and NATO.
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